Biden Leads Sanders Among Likely Democratic Party Voters 33 to 25 Percent –

By Glynn Wilson –

It’s still early in the race for the White House with a year and a half to go before Election Day on November 3, 2020. So public opinion surveys are not so important or reliable yet, although they do matter in the perception of voters, for fund raising purposes and to potentially weed out some of the weaker candidates.

Besides, public trust in polls was seriously damaged in 2016 when the pundits who follow polls missed their mark by predicting that the Democrat, Hillary Clinton, was a lock to beat the Republican, Donald Trump, in the presidential race.

But since public opinion research is one of my specialties as a social scientist and journalist, and since this research is one of the only ways we have to measure what the American public is thinking at any given point in time, we will continue to periodically share and explain what’s going on with the polls.

As I was checking in on social media Saturday morning, there was still an old USA Today story going around from April 16 showing Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders leading the Democratic field. But when I clicked on the link for the Emerson National Poll, it had former Vice President Joe Biden back in the lead with a bump since his official entrance into the race.

You’ve got to be careful with what you see and share on Facebook, since old stories never seem to go away and they tend to pop back up in the news feed for no apparent reason other than the algorithm of popularity.

While many women, minority voters and younger voters are not excited about the prospect of the Democrats nominating another old, white male as their standard bearer in 2020, apparently many Democrats see the best chance to take out President Trump is go to with a mainstream, moderate, well known candidate over someone lesser known and more to the left of the political center.

The latest Emerson Poll finds Biden leading with 33 percent of the support of Democratic Party primary voters, while Sanders comes in second with 25 percent. Sanders had taken a lead in this poll back in April, when Emerson found Sanders ahead of Biden, 29 percent to 24 percent.

This 13 point swing in favor of Biden came after he officially announced his candidacy during the last week of April.

The poll finds Senator Kamala Harris of California and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts tied for 3rd place, each with 10 percent of the prospective vote. Pete Buttigieg, the openly gay mayor of South Bend, Indiana, rounds out the top 5 with 8 percent. No other candidate in the field clears 3 percent, so watch for some of them to drop out over the next few months.

Voters Could Still Change Their Minds

A majority of Democratic primary voters, 56 percent, indicate there is a chance they could change their minds and vote for another candidate, while 44 percent say they will definitely vote for the candidate they are currently supporting.

“Biden and Sanders have more loyal supporters, as 52 percent and 54 percent of their voters say they will definitely vote for the top two candidates, while only 33 percent of Harris voters, 27 percent of Buttigieg and 20 percent of Warren voters plan to definitely stick with their preferred candidate,” said Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling.

The big strength for Sanders throughout this early stage of the nominating process has been the support of younger voters, he indicated.

Sanders currently leads Biden among 18-29 year old voters by an impressive 41 percent to 11 percent.

However, Sanders’ support weakens with age: 30-49 year olds only break for Sanders 29 percent to 26 percent, as compared to 50-64 year olds who break for Biden 42 percent to 19 percent. Among those over 65, Biden has a strong lead, beating Sanders 52 percent to 7 percent.

Republican Primary

Within the Republican Party, the president remains very popular, according to Kimball, and he is “very likely to hold the Republican nomination,” leading Republican primary candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld 86 percent to 14 percent.

President Trump’s overall approval rating with Americans nationally remains the same as it was in April, with an approval rating of 43 percent, while 49 percent disapprove of the job he is doing.

Head to Head

In head to head matchups between Trump and his top Democratic rivals, only Biden and Sanders lead Trump by significant margins, while the race would be a statistical dead heat within the 3-5 point margin of error with the other candidates.

Biden 54 percent, Trump 46 percent

Sanders 54 percent, Trump 46 percent

O’Rourke 52 percent, Trump 48 percent

Warren 51 percent, Trump 48 percent

Harris 51 percent, Trump 49 percent

Buttigieg 50 percent, Trump 50 percent

Can Trump be Reelected?

Voters are split right down the middle when asked if they think Trump will be re-elected in 2020, with 50 percent of voters saying he will be re-elected and 50 percent thinking he will not.

Republicans are slightly more optimistic, with 84 percent expecting a re-election, while 80 percent of Democrats are expecting the president to be defeated.

Independents are split 51 percent to 49 percent, with the slight majority expecting the president to lose.

Important Issues

When asked what issue is the most important in determining who they would support for president, the most common responses at 27 percent each are the Economy and Social Issues/Values, followed by Social Security/Medicare and Health Care at 14 percent each, and Immigration at 10 percent.

The Mueller Report and the Federal Deficit each got 2 percent.

“The Mueller report, in and of itself, is not the issue the Democrats are trying to win on, but serves as a frame for a larger narrative focusing on social/values issues meant to appeal to voters in 2020,” Kimball said. “Such social/value issues are core for 38 percent of Democratic primary voters.”

While the issue of the Federal Deficit was a top issue in 2012 for Republicans, it “is an afterthought in this election,” Kimball says, “as only 1 percent of Republican voters identify it as the most important issue in the upcoming campaign.”

“In this election cycle top issues for Republican voters are the economy at 41 percent, followed by immigration at 18 percent,” Kimball added.

Social Media Bias

Half of all voters, 50 percent, think Twitter and Facebook are biased against people with particular political beliefs, 21 percent do not, and 29 percent are unsure, according to this Emerson poll.

The bias issue splits along party lines, with 71 percent of Republicans identifying a bias, as compared to only 32 percent of Democrats who share this view, and 50 percent of Independents believe the social media platforms are biased, while 16 percent believe they are not.

Are Voters Paying Attention?

Only half of all voters, 49 percent, say they have are paying attention to the race at this point by watching some part of the recent televised town halls with the 2020 presidential candidates, which could be a negative harbinger for 2020, since high voter turnout will be necessary for any Democrat to have a chance to beat Trump.

Political Ideology

When voters were asked their political ideology, 38 percent said they were somewhat or very conservative, 36 percent identified as somewhat or very liberal, and 26 percent identified as moderate.

Survey Methods

The national Emerson College poll was conducted May 10-13, 2019 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of 1,006 registered voters, and had a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The data was weighted based on a 2016 voter model of gender, age, region and ethnicity. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=604) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=402).