By Glynn Wilson –

WASHINGTON, D.C. — For the first time in his highly controversial roller coaster ride of a presidency, Donald Trump may be in real trouble. The news about the new impeachment investigation launched by House Democrats has reached the American people, and now a solid majority of 55 percent support the inquiry, according to a CBS News poll released Sunday.

On top of that, 64 percent of Americans described Trump’s actions as “serious,” with 43 percent saying they are “very serious” and 21 percent describing them as “somewhat serious,” according to an ABC/Ipsos poll.

At a journalism conference hosted by the Texas Tribune, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi acknowledged this shift in public opinion, which she said is different from the clear partisan divide in reaction to Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation of Trump’s role in Russian interference in the 2016 election, which led to no indictments against Trump or members of his family or any explicit recommendations for impeachment charges.

“A president of the United States would withhold military assistance paid for by taxpayers to shake down the leader of another country unless he did him a political favor – that is so, so clear,” Pelosi said. “If the facts are persuasive to the American people, they may be to some Republicans.”

Pelosi would not forecast how long it may take for the House to complete any possible impeachment proceedings against Trump.

“It will take as long as the Intelligence Committee needs to follow all the facts,” she said.

Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff said on the Sunday morning talk shows that he expects the CIA officer and whistleblower who brought the controversy to light to testify “very soon.” While Congress is on a two-week recess, members of the committee will return to the U.S. Capitol this week to carry out an investigation likely to produce new subpoenas for documents and other witnesses.

Schiff said any effort by Trump to stonewall the probe could be used to impeach him for obstructing Congress and obstruction of justice.

Former Housing Secretary Julian Castro, also addressing the controversy at the journalism event, pointed out that public opinion didn’t turn against President Richard Nixon in 1974 until the impeachment hearings laid out the facts on national television.

“Like in Watergate, after more evidence gets out there … you’ll see more people of different political stripes start to support it,” Castro said.

Nixon resigned in disgrace as a crook before the House was set to vote to approve articles of impeachment against him, sending it to a full trial in the U.S. Senate.

The numbers on Trump’s impeachment shifted significantly in the past few days since Pelosi announced the inquiry. An NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist poll conducted last Wednesday found that just shy of a majority of Americans, 49 percent, approved of an impeachment inquiry, with 46 percent disapproving.

Of course a partisan divide still exists in public opinion on the controversy. An overwhelming majority of Democrats, 87 percent, support the impeachment probe, while only 27 percent of Republicans support it. But the key number to watch is independents. For now 49 percent of independents support the investigation. If that number goes over 50 percent, Trump’s reelection chances may in fact be in trouble.

Also for now, 41 percent of Americans described Trump’s actions as illegal, and another 31 percent said it was “not proper, but legal.”

“In the public, the tide has completely changed; it could change now – who knows – but right now after seeing the complaint and the IG (Inspector General) report and the cavalier attitude the administration had towards it, the American people are coming to a different decision,” Pelosi said last week.

Apparently Pelosi had been receiving increasing pressure from her Democratic caucus to take action. Most Democrats say they were glad when they heard an impeachment inquiry had been launched, and just under a quarter of Republicans even said they do think the inquiry is necessary.

A majority of Americans said they had heard, read or seen some news about Trump’s phone call and false assertions concerning potential Democratic rival Joe Biden and his son doing business with the Ukraine.

But a majority of Democrats think holding an impeachment inquiry is better than doing nothing and waiting for the outcome of the 2020 election.

While there is a risk that it will just rile up Trump’s base and help him in the election, there is also a good chance that the investigation itself may further drive down his public approval numbers below 40 percent and hurt his chance of reelection, if he is not tried, found guilty and removed from office by the Senate.

Of course if the House fast-tracks articles of impeachment and the Senate holds a trial, the public will find out the facts and may well turn against Trump and any Republicans who continue to defend him in a partisan fashion.

If he were to be found guilty and removed from office, he would be prohibited from running for reelection in 2020 and the Republicans would have to come up with another party nominee. Such an event would most likely hand the White House and potentially the Senate back to the Democrats, since it is hard to imagine the Republicans coming up with as strong a candidate as Trump on such short notice.

One more thing to keep in mind. There is no avenue for appealing an impeachment conviction in the Senate to the Supreme Court.

For more on the process, check this out from the New York Times.