Doug Jones wins historic victory over Roy Moore in Alabama, Tuesday Dec. 12, 2017: Glynn Wilson

By Glynn Wilson –

As the countdown begins in earnest to see what party runs the country for the next four years, setting the agenda for public policy in Washington and leading America beyond the coronavirus pandemic and economic recession, the hidebound red state of Alabama has a chance to play a surprising role in deciding the future. North Carolina could play a pivotal role as well.

While there is little doubt that President Donald Trump will carry Alabama’s nine electoral votes Nov. 3, recent tracking polls have him losing ground even here, down 6 percentage points in May due to his controversial response to the coronavirus pandemic and public concerns about the cratering economy.

While Trump won the state with 62 percent of the vote in 2016, a drop of six points — if it holds up until November — means he may only win 56 percent of the state’s votes this time around. This contributes to an opportunity for Alabama to play a crucial role in shifting control of the United States Senate away from the Republican Party, although so far, none of the national public opinion analysis or pundits see it that way.

Birmingham Democrat Doug Jones shocked the political establishment in 2017 by beating Republican Roy Moore in a special election for the U.S. Senate seat held for two decades by Mobile’s Jeff Sessions after he vacated the seat to become Trump’s first Attorney General. After being ousted and abandoned by Trump, Sessions is still in a runoff to regain that seat, although analysts don’t give him much of a chance in the Republican runoff scheduled for July 14 against former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville.

Related: So Long Jeff Sessions: We Won’t Be Sorry to See You Go

Senator Jeff Sessions struts onto the stage at the Trump victory tour rally in Mobile, Alabama, basking in the celebrity glow of Donald Trump: Glynn Wilson

“I know you’ve probably seen all the stories calling Doug this year’s most vulnerable Senator,” says Joe Trippi, writing in a fund raising email for the Jones campaign.

“Yes, he’s definitely Mitch McConnell’s top target,” Trippi says. “McConnell and his dark money are going to try to meddle in this race, no doubt. They already have. But if you’ve been digging into the numbers like I have, you’ll see that it’s very clear Doug Jones has a clear path to victory, no matter what anyone else says.”

According to internal campaign polling, the data shows Jones in a virtual tie with his likely challenger, Tuberville, who was recently spotted boarding Air Force One with Trump. The poll shows 46 percent of voters support Jones, and 46 percent support Tuberville.

Related: Trump Endorses Tuberville Over Sessions in Alabama Republican Runoff in U.S. Senate Race

“It’s true – Doug’s going to have a tough race this year,” Trippi says. “But our newest poll shows that we have a clear path to victory. When you look at the numbers, we’re starting from an even stronger position than we did in 2017.”

Jones only beat Moore in 2017 by 21,924 votes, so voter enthusiasm and turnout will be the key.

“This is going to come down to a few votes again,” Trippi says, appealing to supporters to keep sending money “to make all the difference.”

African American voters especially in urban areas were key to Jones’ victory in 2017, and the data shows that their votes will be critical again, along with white and even Republican women in the suburbs, especially around Birmingham, Huntsville, Mobile and Tuscaloosa. New voters and younger voters could also play a role.

“New voters and young voters are moving to Doug even more than they did in 2017,” Trippi says.

The difference between 2017 and 2020, he says, is that Jones has had nearly three years to prove himself as a Senator, raise his name recognition, and deliver on the promises he made to Alabama in 2017.

“He’s accomplished all that and more,” Trippi says, passing 17 bipartisan bills and standing up for what’s right “every step of the way.”

“There was no secret science to how we won in 2017,” Trippi says. “It wasn’t a miracle or a fluke. We won because Doug had a clear message of bringing people together and the people of Alabama were sick of all the chaos and division. That message is even more true today. The difference this time is Doug’s proven himself. Alabama gave him a chance in 2017, and he’s kept his promise.”

Of course that doesn’t stop news outlets like the New York Times from calling him “the Democrats’ most threatened incumbent this year.”

The public opinion outfit Cook Political Report still has the race in the Republican leaning category.

The Washington Post called Jones “the most vulnerable senator in 2020.”

And according to USA Today: “Political handicappers predict Sen. Doug Jones, D-Ala., likely will lose in November, adding to the Democrats’ task of winning back the Senate.”

The talking heads at CNN, on the other hand, seem to be a little more optimistic than most about the chances of the Democrats taking control of the Senate in 2020.

To gain Senate control from Republicans in November, Democrats will need a net gain of three seats, if front runner and former Vice President Joe Biden holds onto his lead over President Donald Trump and claims victory in November, or four seats if Trump were to somehow squeak out a win, since the Vice President casts the deciding vote in the Senate.

“An early look at the data finds that Democrats are the slightest of favorites to take back the Senate,” according to CNN.

They place the odds of a net gain of 3 seats by Democrats at 3-in-5, or 60 percent, and the chance they net gain at least 4 seats at 1-in-2, or 50 percent.

“There is still a lot of uncertainty,” CNN says. “Democrats could realistically end up anywhere from a net loss of 4 seats to a net gain of 11 seats, though a few more times than not, they’ll end up in the majority.”

According to all the polling data, Democrats are clear favorites in three seats Republicans currently hold: In Arizona, Senator Martha McSally looks vulnerable, along with Senator Cory Gardner in Colorado and Susan Collins in Maine.

But even CNN gives Republicans the advantage in Alabama.

The next best shot for Democrats to pickup an additional Senate seat is in North Carolina, a state Trump carried by only 5 points in 2016 that has been trending Blue ever since. Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham is reportedly leading Republican Senator Thom Tillis with 55 percent of the projected vote, although most analysts keep this race in the tossup category.

New American Journal Analysis

In the New American Journal‘s social science analysis of the political landscape, however, polls are not the only factors to consider. Critical reporting on the ground plays a key role in how we view elections.

For example, seeing how the working people in Mobile, Alabama, responded to Trump when he held his first big football stadium rally in Jeff Sessions’ home town in 2015 led us to conclude that Trump had a very realistic chance to win in 2016, and not just in Alabama. This went against the grain of most polls around the country, with prognosticators predicting a win for Hillary Clinton, even though most polls were well within the margin of error in the mid-40s.

Related: The Donald Woos the Heart of Dixie, But Jesus Remains Politically Polygamous

Business Matters

This time around, we have it on good authority that the so-called “Captain’s Table” of prominent, influential business and political leaders in Mobile — who used to be conservative Democrats but have long been chamber of commerce style Republicans — are saying there is no way they can support a “dunderhead” former Auburn football coach like Tommy Tuberville to go to Washington and represent the state in the United States Senate. He has absolutely no government or business experience, and as a politician, his only campaign tactic is to parrot Trump’s wildest Twitter tweets and suck up to The Donald.

They are looking for someone who they can do business with, and Doug Jones has proven to be the man for that, shoring up his institutional support in the state in the business community, the legal community, with the military and veterans as well as environmentalists, along with the University of Alabama, Alabama Power and even the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which just awarded the 2020 U.S. Chamber Spirit of Enterprise Award to Senator Jones.

“The award recognizes members of Congress who have shown their commitment to not only supporting pro-business legislation, but also commitment to bipartisan leadership and constructive governing necessary to move our country forward,” the chamber said in the press release announcing the award.

Senator Jones was also awarded the U.S Chamber of Commerce Jefferson-Hamilton Award for Bipartisanship and the Abraham Lincoln Leadership for America Award earlier this month. Senator Jones is one of only two senators to have earned both honors this year.

“In these uncertain times with daunting economic and social challenges facing our nation, it is imperative that leaders in Washington are focused on propelling American businesses forward to create jobs and economic growth from California to Maine,” said U.S Chamber of Commerce CEO, Thomas J. Donohue. “As we rebuild our economy, legislators must lead by pursuing bipartisan solutions that create jobs and promote a free enterprise system. I’m proud to recognize these … members of Congress for their commitment to driving opportunity and prosperity in America’s workforce and on Main Streets across the nation.”

In responding to the awards, Senator Jones said pro-growth policies contribute to good jobs and “improve the quality of life for the folks I serve, and I am always looking for opportunities to work across the aisle to advance those efforts. I am grateful to the U.S. Chamber for this honor and I will continue to make it my top priority to improve the lives of Alabamians by championing policies that expand economic opportunity.”

Voter Turnout

Given that Jones has already shown his ability to turn out women and African American voters, as well as urban progressive Democrats, independents and to convince some Republicans to cross over to vote for him, and has worked very hard to simply show up and do the job of a Senator for the past three years like nothing the people of the state have seen in decades, it seems likely that a number of Republicans will be willing to either vote for Joe Biden and Doug Jones in November, or split their tickets and vote for Jones.

If the numbers hold up and 56 percent of voters do carry the state for Trump, it will only take about five to seven percent of Republicans to split their tickets to keep Jones in the Senate. While most Republicans these days tend to simply vote a straight R ticket, can the Jones campaign find a way to convince enough Republicans to split their votes to keep a moderate, reasonable Democrat in the Senate?

Here’s a reason. Doug Jones graduated from Alabama. Tuberville coached at Auburn. While football has been compared to the state religion in Alabama, next to the Southern Baptist Convention with 1 million members and voters in the state, the tribal memberships of football loyalties could carry as much influence as any poll here. A preponderance of the population in Alabama is north of Montgomery, where Alabama football loyalty trumps Auburn, while the rural southern part of the state tends to pull for the Tigers. If so, we predict the Roll Tide vs. War Eagle factor could carry the day. In that case, Doug Jones wins with 50 percent of the vote, just like he did in 2017.