The Big Picture – 
By Glynn Wilson – 

WASHINGTON, D.C. — About the time Lewis and Clark were rafting up the Missouri River to search for a land and water route to the Pacific from 1803 to 1806, the global population topped one billion people.

It took more than a century to reach two billion, a number achieved in about 1927 during the “Roaring Twenties” — two years before the stock market crash of 1929 and the beginning of the Great Depression.

Due to modern advances in medical science, public health and nutrition, the world population grew exponentially in the 20th century until it reached 7 billion about 12 years ago, in 2010.

Only a decade later, the United Nations announced the latest milestone of 8 billion in November based on international estimates, calling this “a milestone in human development.”

“This unprecedented growth is due to the gradual increase in human lifespan owing to improvements in public health, nutrition, personal hygiene and medicine. It is also the result of high and persistent levels of fertility in some countries.”

While it took the global population 12 years to grow from 7 to 8 billion, it will take approximately 15 years — until 2037 — for it to reach 9 billion, “a sign that the overall growth rate of the global population is slowing.”

Some consolation.

“The milestone is an occasion to celebrate diversity and advancements while considering humanity’s shared responsibility for the planet,” said Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary-General.

But is this really an occasion to celebrate?

Countries with the highest fertility levels tend to be those with the lowest income per capita. Global population growth become increasingly concentrated among the world’s poorest countries, in sub-Saharan Africa. About 70 percent of the growth to 8 billion from 7 billion happened in low- and lower-middle-income countries, and the trend is expected to become even more pronounced going forward.

“When the next billion is added between 2022 and 2037, these two groups of countries are expected to account for more than 90 percent of global growth,” the UN says.

Environmental Impacts

In these countries, sustained rapid population growth can thwart the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals, the UN says, “which remain the world’s best pathway toward a happy and healthy future.”

Even though population growth exacerbates the environmental impact of economic development, rising per capita incomes are the main driver of unsustainable patterns of production and consumption. The countries with the highest per capita consumption of material resources and emissions of greenhouse gases tend to be those where income per capita is higher, not those where the population is growing rapidly.

Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise depends on curbing unsustainable patterns of production and consumption.

While the fertility rate has dropped around the world in richer, developed nations, where the number of people under 65 is expected to decline in the coming years, it has remained stubbornly high in poorer countries, where more women and girls lack access to sexual and reproductive health care, including contraception.

People are always asking: What’s your solution? Here’s one big one.

Here’s the best, winning idea of the new millennia.

We are gifting this to the world, so don’t squander it.

I’ve long said that making condoms COOL and FREE would solve many social problems, including sexually transmitted diseases, unwanted pregnancies and all the problems of crime and mental health issues that go along with that. We have the media power to do this, if we would use it for good for a change, not just for profit. This is “cultural power.” Imagine musical public service announcements from every type of musician and band, from rock, blues and jazz to country, blue grass and folk, and of course rap. All putting out the message that condoms are cool.

What if Dolly Parton took that $100 million from Jeff Bezos and made it her cause, and Taylor Swift produced a video on this subject? For example. Please, no Kanye West.

But Snoop Dog could save the world if he would take on this cause.

Do a World Tour, and an event like Michael Jackson’s “We Are The World,” and bring it to Africa, India and Latin America. Pay for the FREE condoms with money from Jeff Bezos and other billionaires who are trying to give some of their money away.

We could slow world population overnight, and mitigate many of the problems that causes, including many of the environmental impacts.

Meeting the basic needs of all these people, providing food and water, sanitation, health care, education and employment will require “a significant increase in public expenditures” to say the least.

The UN was frank about the environmental impacts.

“Our levels of production and consumption are unsustainable,” the report says. “The growing population has helped fuel consumption at what experts say is an unsustainable pace. It has contributed to environmental challenges, including climate change, deforestation and the loss of biodiversity.”

“Yet, slower population growth over many decades could help to mitigate the further accumulation of environmental damage in the second half of the current century,” the UN says.

But that will likely be too late.

Lower-income countries, where the population growth is concentrated, have contributed far less to climate change than the richest nations. But as poorer populations grow, “their energy consumption will need to increase substantially if they are to develop economically.”

Yet a decline in the world’s population is not expected for another half-century, with the exact date depending largely on the future pace of fertility decline in today’s high-fertility countries.

China’s births hit a historic low in 2021, a fact that, coupled with its increased life expectancy, could lead to labor shortages and hampered economic growth. The United States has slowed down as well, growing at the slowest rate since the 1930s over the past decade.

India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation in 2023.

How in the world are we going to take care of all these people, and keep this planet livable for those who are already here?

That is a job for governments. Child activists who said the time for talk is over and it’s time for action are naive. But the public can do more to pressure their governments to act. It certainly won’t be achieved with the deregulation mentality of today’s selfish Republicans, hell bent on promoting white supremacy and Uber nationalism.

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