Public Opinion Analysis –
By Glynn Wilson – 

WASHINGTON, D.C. — After a spectacle of arm-twisting on the House floor that nearly erupted into fisticuffs, California Republican Kevin McCarthy finally won over just enough of the right-wing rebels he needed Friday night to become Speaker of the House.

After a five-day, 15-ballot debacle of a floor fight, and after giving away a veritable store of major concessions to members who still support Donald Trump and never accepted the results of the 2020 election, McCarthy clawed his way to 216 votes and two present votes after midnight, giving him the gavel where he was finally able to swear in the members of Congress.

But it will be a hollow victory, as his margin of control is razor thin, and the public does not appear ready to forget the seditious conspiracy and violent insurrection of Jan. 6, 2021, according to survey research. They will likely not forget the floor fights around Jan. 6, 2023 either.

According to Morning Consult polls on the eve of the House votes, little has changed over the past year in how the American electorate thinks about the Jan. 6 Capitol attack following the conclusion of the House Select Committee’s investigation.

“They blame former President Donald Trump and think he’s guilty of crimes,” Morning Consult analysts say.

With the next presidential campaign already underway in some form, a new Morning Consult/Politico survey suggests the issue could weigh on the Republican Party at least as much in 2024 as it did during the midterm elections, when Democrats were able to raise threats to democracy.

In the latest survey, conducted just ahead of the second anniversary of the Trump-inspired mob’s assault on the Capitol, 55 percent of voters said the events of Jan. 6 will have at least a minor impact on their 2024 vote, similar to the share that said the same a year ago — before the Republicans would go on to underperform expectations in November.

Roughly a third of voters, 34 percent, said the Capitol attack will have a “major impact” on their vote in 2024, including 53 percent of Democrats and 30 percent of independents. Each of those figures is up slightly from the December 2021 survey, in contrast to a decline among Republican voters over that period.

“The steadiness of sentiment, especially among independent voters, comes as the country — and the Republican Party — grapples with another White House bid by Trump, a highly divisive figure who has not strayed from his false claims of widespread voter fraud that preceded the deadly Capitol riot,” they say.

It could be troubling for the Republicans ahead of 2024, given the fact that surveys conducted amid the select committee’s hearings suggested the Jan. 6 issue weighed particularly heavily on the politically unaffiliated voters who ultimately helped fuel the Republican underperformance in the 2022 midterms.

Over the past year, the House’s Jan. 6 committee revealed new details about Trump’s behavior ahead of the insurrection. That included testimony that he was made aware by counsel and associates, including then-Attorney General William Barr, that his claims of widespread voter fraud were false, paired with salacious allegations about his interest in joining his supporters at the Capitol.

The committee’s report sought to prove Trump was culpable for the attack, adding evidence to something most voters have been inclined to believe all along.

According to the latest survey, 59 percent of voters said Trump is “very” or “somewhat” responsible for the events that led to the Capitol attack as Congress met to certify President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory. It’s similar to the share who said the same a year ago and down only slightly from a survey conducted immediately after the attack.

Along with Trump, a large share of voters, 47 percent, believe Republicans in Congress are at least somewhat to blame for Jan. 6. That’s identical to the percentage who agreed with the sentiment roughly a year before the midterms.

While House Republicans have indicated they will investigate the Jan. 6 investigators, the select committee ended its work on generally solid footing with voters.

Almost half of voters, 47 percent, and a similar share of independents, said they approve of the Jan. 6 committee’s work, similar to the panel’s standing a year ago, before lawmakers held major hearings or released details from their investigation.

Though the House’s probe has ended with the election of a small Republican House majority, about 2 in 3 voters — including 90 percent of Democrats and 59 percent of independents — said it is very or somewhat important for the federal government to continue to investigate the events of Jan. 6. This has remained virtually unchanged over the past year.

The results of the House’s probe were not a particularly salient news event, with just 25 percent of voters reporting that they had seen, read or heard a lot about it, ranking the development as impactful as news last year that former Trump adviser Steve Bannon was found guilty of contempt of Congress.

Still, voters were more likely, at 36 percent, to hear a lot about the committee’s recommendation that Trump be prosecuted by the Justice Department for inciting insurrection and other federal crimes. And on that issue, Trump may face his biggest difficulty as he seeks the White House again.

A majority of voters, 55 percent, believe Trump’s attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election were criminal, including more than half of independent voters and 1 in 5 Republicans.

Roughly half of voters, 47 percent, believe the former president and Republican presidential front-runner should be prosecuted for his behavior surrounding Jan. 6.

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