Donald Trump: NAJ screen shot

Public Opinion Analysis –
By Glynn Wilson –

WASHINGTON, D.C. — A clear majority of Americans believe an indictment of Donald Trump in any of the criminal investigations pending against the former president should be enough to stop him from actively campaigning for another term as president.

When asked whether criminal charges should disqualify Trump from running again, 57 percent of registered voters surveyed within the last week said yes, according to the survey, first reported by Politico. Another 38 percent said charges should not be enough to prevent Trump from running a political campaign, and five percent said they were unsure, according to the Quinnipiac poll.

Only 23 percent of Republicans agreed, however, while about 55 percent of independents agreed, and almost 90 percent of Democrats said criminal charges should definitely keep Trump from campaigning for public office.

While 55 percent of respondents think Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg is investigating Trump for “serious” claims related to a 2016 hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels, 60 percent believe the case is politically motivated.

Trump has repeatedly blasted Bragg, a Democrat, for waging a so-called political “witch-hunt” aimed at stopping his political comeback, a point of view which has been promoted on all the right-wing Republican channels on the web, in print, on television and social media, especially Fox News.

It was reported Wednesday that the grand jury hearing evidence in Bragg’s investigation is expected to take a month-long break from the case, contrary to an announcement last week from Trump that he was expecting to be charged on Tuesday, and calling on his supporters to protest, leading to a ramp up in domestic security precautions in New York and Washington.

The hush money payment came during the height of Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign to prevent Daniels from publicizing an affair with the former TV star and questionable business man, according to previous cases, in which Trump’s former lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen admitted to making the payment, pleaded guilty, served time in prison and testified about it before a congressional investigation.

Related: Trump’s Fixer Michael Cohen’s Damning Testimony Before Congress Puts the Legal Fix In for Trump’s Downfall

Trump always denied the affair, claiming Stormy was not his type, and denied wrongdoing in connection with the payment, which of course he denied even making, yet taking the Fifth Amendment under oath against self incrimination when asked about it in a criminal probe.

Trump is still under investigation by a state grand jury for tampering with the 2020 election in Georgia, for obstruction of justice by a special Department of Justice prosecutor for refusing to cooperate with the FBI in his handling of classified documents after leaving office, and most significantly, for engaging in a seditious conspiracy and inciting a violent insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021, to stop the peaceful transfer of power and stop the certification of the 2020 election by Congress.

Nearly 7 in 10 Americans (69 percent) think Trump was mainly acting out of concerns for himself when he announced on social media that he was going to be arrested in New York and urged people to protest and “take our nation back,” while nearly one-quarter (24 percent) think he was mainly acting out of concerns about democracy.

“Yes, say Americans, it was all about him and not the country’s well-being when Trump proclaimed he was targeted for arrest,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy. “And, yes he should be forever banished from office if he is charged as a criminal.”

In other results, more than half of registered voters (58 percent) think Trump has had a mainly negative impact on the Republican party, while 36 percent think he has had a mainly positive impact. More than 7 in 10 Republican voters (72 percent) think Trump has had a mainly positive impact on their party, while 21 percent think he has had a mainly negative impact.

Apparently 36 percent of Americans still consider themselves to be members of Trump’s MAGA movement, including 79 percent of Republicans, while 60 percent of Americans say they are definitely not onboard with this extreme, White nationalist interpretation of American democracy.

Republican Primary 2024

Given a list of 15 Republicans who have either declared a 2024 presidential run or are seen as potential candidates, Donald Trump still receives 47 percent support among Republican and Republican leaning voters, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 33 percent. Former Vice President Mike Pence receives 5 percent and former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley receives 4 percent. Of the remaining 11 listed declared or potential candidates, no one tops 2 percent. These results are largely unchanged from a Quinnipiac University poll on March 15.

In a head-to-head Republican primary matchup between the two leading Republican candidates, Trump receives 52 percent support and DeSantis receives 42 percent support, essentially unchanged from earlier in the month.

“Is the raucous Trump political resurrection adrift? Not in the least,” Malloy said. “DeSantis appears to be treading water and the long list of ‘wannabes’ and ‘could bes’ are barely staying afloat.”

General Election 2024

In a hypothetical general election matchup for president between Trump and President Joe Biden, the race is too close to call, with Biden receiving 48 percent to Trump’s 46 percent among all registered voters. When Biden is matched against DeSantis, the race is also very close, with DeSantis receiving 48 percent to Biden’s 46 percent.

Honesty

When voters were asked about the honesty of the candidates, 41 percent said Biden is honest, while 54 percent said he was not, compared to 29 percent who said Trump was honest, while 65 percent said he is not. Voters are split on the honesty of DeSantis, with 41 percent saying he is honest and 40 percent saying he is not.

Favorability Ratings

When registered voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidates, 37 percent had a favorable opinion of Biden, with 56 percent saying they had an unfavorable opinion of him, compared to 36 percent favorable for Trump and 58 percent unfavorable. DeSantis had a favorability rating of 36 percent, with 39 percent unfavorable.

When Americans were asked about Biden’s handling of specific issues, 40 percent approve, while 52 percent disapprove of his handling of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On foreign policy generally, 36 percent approve of his performance, while 57 percent disapprove. On the economy, 34 percent approve of his performance, while 60 percent disapprove.

“Americans are alarmed as the grinding war in Ukraine produces a troubling partnership between Russia and China,” Malloy said. “And the consensus on Putin: he should join a list of reviled leaders facing prison or worse.”

Confidence in Banks

A majority of Americans (55 percent) have either a lot of confidence (14 percent) or some confidence (41 percent) in the nation’s banking system, while 43 percent have either not too much confidence (20 percent) or not much confidence at all (23 percent) in the nation’s banking system.

More than three-quarters of Americans (77 percent) have either a lot of confidence (41 percent) or some confidence (36 percent) that their money is secure in the banks they personally use, while 20 percent have either not too much confidence (10 percent) or not much confidence at all (10 percent) that their money is secure in the banks they personally use.

Methods

1,788 U.S. adults nationwide were surveyed from March 23rd – 27th with a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percentage points. The survey included 1,600 self-identified registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The survey included 671 Republican and Republican leaning voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.

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