By Glynn Wilson –
Public Opinion Analyst

WASHINGTON, D.C. — With the presidential election of 2024 still 15 months away, it is far too early to put much stock in the results of public opinion polls.

But for those of us who are educated and trained in such things, there is some news benefit in keeping track of trends over time.

There are too many outstanding variables and many things could change between now and Tuesday, November 5, 2024.

Considering the age of the leading candidates, health could be a factor.

President Joe Biden will be 81 on November 20, 2023. If he remains healthy and wins the Democratic Party’s nomination, as expected, and reelected, as projected, he would be the oldest president ever.

Donald Trump, still the Republican front runner, will be 78 on June 14, 2024. If he doesn’t drop dead of a heart attack on one of his golf courses between now and then, he would be the second oldest president ever.

Ronald Reagan previously held that record. He was 73 when he won reelection in 1984.

Trump also faces multiple investigations and indictments, and any conviction on federal charges could make him ineligible to serve in public office, even if a majority of the people were to vote for him, a remote possibility.

According to recent public opinion tracking polls conducted by Morning Consult, Biden remains in the lead against Trump, but only by a point or two, depending on the poll.

If something were to happen to Trump, his health were to fail or if he were convicted on federal charges, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis appears in the best position as the one favored as the second choice of many Republican voters.

Contrary to what some Democrats on social media appear to believe, however, DeSantis might be even easier to beat than Trump.

“DeSantis performs poorly against Biden,” Morning Consult says. “Among the overall electorate, DeSantis trails Biden by 5 points in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. Trump fares a little better against the incumbent though he still trails him by 2 points.”

Trump maintains a formidable lead among Republican primary voters. He’s still favored by 59 percent, a 43-percentage point lead over DeSantis “as the Florida governor’s campaign undergoes a reset,” Morning Consult analysts say. “This marks one of Trump’s largest advantages over his closest polling rival — and one of DeSantis’ lowest levels of support — since Morning Consult began tracking the primary race in early December.”

In third place is a political unknown, biotech billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy, an Indian American who has announced he will run.

Potential Republican primary voters are 32 points more likely to have recently heard something positive than negative about the entrepreneur, “marking the highest level of buzz in the field,” according to Morning Consult.

In addition to polling in third place, Ramaswamy has also become the third most popular candidate, with 51 percent favorability among the Republican electorate.

The bulk of those voters, 59 percent, would back Trump if the primary or caucus were held in their state today, compared to 16 percent who would support DeSantis.

Ramaswamy is backed by 8 percent of the party’s potential voters, followed by former Vice President Mike Pence (6%), former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (4%), South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (2%), former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (2%) and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (1%).

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez and former Rep. Will Hurd all have 0% backing.

DeSantis is the second choice of 36 percent of potential Republican primary voters who are backing Trump, while 44 percent of the Florida governor’s supporters view Trump as their top backup option.

Ramaswamy is the second choice of 18 percent of Trump supporters and 17 percent of DeSantis backers, while 16 percent of Trump and 13 percent of DeSantis supporters have Pence as their top backup pick.

Hypothetical head-to-head matchups show Biden leading Trump by 2 percentage points and DeSantis by 5 points among the general electorate.

“These numbers may be best considered as a test of electability — a key issue in party primaries that carries all the more significance this time around given concerns about Trump’s baggage and whether the GOP should work to maintain Trump’s coalition or to try to expand its base,” analysts say.

Trump is popular with 78 percent of the party’s potential electorate, while 20 percent view him unfavorably. The bulk of the Republican primary voters (62%) also hold favorable views of DeSantis, while 23 percent hold unfavorable views.

Potential primary voters are 37 points more likely to hold favorable opinions than unfavorable opinions about Ramaswamy (51% to 14%), making him the third most popular Republican presidential candidate.

On the other hand, Christie’s net favorability rating is 19 points underwater, with 45 percent of potential Republican primary voters holding unfavorable views.

Methodology

The latest national results on questions pertaining to 2024 Republican presidential primary first choice, second choice and hypothetical general-election matchups reflect surveys conducted July 21-23, 2023. The first- and second-choice results reflect responses among 3,576 potential Republican primary voters. Our sample of potential Republican primary voters includes any registered voter who said they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary or caucus in their state in 2024.

Potential GOP primary voters who initially said they did not know or had no opinion about which candidate they plan to vote for were asked to pick a candidate they are leaning toward. Results are reported among first choice and those who lean toward a candidate.

The hypothetical general-election results against President Joe Biden reflect responses among a nationally representative sample of more than 5,000 registered voters.

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