Putin’s Trump: New American Journal graphic by Walter Simon
The Big Picture –
By Glynn Wilson –
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Everyone should remember this day elevon months from now on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, Election Day — because of what I’m about to say.
As the one American journalist and public opinion analyst who predicted that Donald Trump would win the presidential election of 2016, but lose to Joe Biden in 2020, I am going on the record right now to say that Trump will not be elected president again next year, or ever.
Trump is going down, one way or another. I believe his bad karma will catch up to him and he will be convicted and face jail time next year.
I realize this is going against the grain of most mainstream media pundits these days, chief among them Robert Kagan, a neocon with the Brookings Institution who the Jeff Bezos Washington Post publishes on a regular basis as an “editor at large” and contributor to the editorial opinion section, which appears to be trending to the right these days.
In this week’s zany contribution, Kagan, who is originally from Greece but got ahead in America because his daddy taught history at Yale, claims a Trump dictatorship in next year’s election is “inevitable.”
A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable. We should stop pretending.
While he makes some good points about where we are, and I realize there is much traffic and money to be made by media organizations touting the threat of Trump, I do not believe at the end of the day when the American people go to vote in November that a majority will pull any lever or check any box to put Trump back into power in the United States.
There is no fucking way this is going to happen.
I understand that much of the public opinion evidence at this point might lead a pollster to conclude that Trump is the front runner. But there is also evidence that once Trump is convicted of federal crimes, including being involved in a seditious conspiracy and inciting a violent insurrection on Jan. 6 to overturn the election of 2020, that many causal Trump voters will finally move on and stop supporting him.
It’s way too early in the survey research cycle to draw any real conclusions about who is ahead in the race for president in 2024. Not that this will stop media pundits and talking heads on cable TeeVee from constantly speculating about it.
Yes, Trump may be ahead of all the other Republicans in the field so far, but the polls show Trump in a dead heat with Biden and most polls within the margin of error, just like both the 2016 and 2020 elections. It may be close again, but Democrats should take some solace in the 2020 results.
Almost 160 million people voted in the 2020 elections, compared to about 137 million in 2016. About 62-67 percent of the voting eligible population voted in 2020, the highest rate of voter participation since the 1952 and 1960 elections. Biden won handily with 306 Electoral College votes, to Trump’s 232. Biden won 51.3 percent of the national popular vote, to Trump’s 46.9 percent. Biden received 81,283,098 votes to Trump’s 74,222,958.
Just because some Democrats worry about Biden’s age, Trump is also probably too old to be president too if this influences your opinion. Biden is 81, but Trump is only four years younger at 77.
Besides, Biden is hard at work doing the job as president, accomplishing things previous presidents only dreamed about.
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While some left-wing environmentalists may be disgruntled with Biden, does anyone actually believe when push some to shove they will vote for Trump? His presidency was a disaster for the environment. Maybe some will vote for a third-party or independent candidate, but it probably won’t be enough to alter the outcome.
We know what Trump would do if elected again, and I do not believe a majority of Americans will vote to go along with it.
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The two biggest fears I have is about turnout and that fake news garbage will run away with all the social media platforms again in 2024 like they did in 2016, bashing Biden as they did Hillary Clinton, and that this will influence some voters to refuse to vote. Turnout will most likely drop in 2024 from the 2020 high.
I’ve called this an “enthusiasm gap” that will tamp down voter turnout next year. There is also ample evidence that people are burned out on all the political news about Trump.
But I suspect previous Trump voters will refuse to show up to vote for him at least on par with those on the left who will refuse to show up to vote for Biden. So the percentages should come out about the same next year that they did in 2020.
If my prediction turns out to be true, will the Washington think tanks clamber to hire me? Will the Post stop refusing to publish my comments? For the record, when my subscription comes due in January, I am not paying for another year.
If the think tanks want to do something useful, how about doing a study on how many people in America actually want a dictatorship rather than a democracy?
At least the New York Times hired me once and used me for four years as a reporter and wrote about me when I sued Kitty Kelly for plagiarism.
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The Post has been against me since they allowed a gossip columnist to screw me on its coverage of that case.
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Guess what? Richard Lei didn’t survive for long after he did this hatchet piece on me. But it still survives on Google and other search engines, even though most people won’t be able to read it due to the paywall.
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I don’t agree with every detail of what you say, but it is good, and disturbingly difficult, to find someone willing to contradict Kagan’s diatribe. I dislike the prospect of another Trump presidency as much as anybody. However, it is ridiculous to think that he could revoke our elective system and appoint himself dictator. I suspect that Kagan is part of the DC-and-maybe-Manhattan elite that largely forgets that there are a third of a billion other Americans out here. And no, we would not accept a Trump dictatorship, just because because he ordered us to.
Are you reading the other stories about what Trump has planned? If he is elected again, it will be a dictatorship.
This is too cryptic for me to be confident that I understand what you are saying. My point is that what a re-installed Trump would like to do, and what the vast American populous would tolerate from him, are two different things.
“a study on how many people in America actually want a dictatorship rather than a democracy?”
The article is pretty on target.