By Glynn Wilson – 

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The worm is beginning to turn, and not in Trump’s favor.

For the past six months, news outfits have pushed out story after story claiming former President Donald Trump was ahead of President Joe Biden in the polls in the presidential election of 2024, keeping Trump supporters feeling in the right and Democrats on edge.

But as I pointed out recently, those polls are not very meaningful because it is too soon to accurately gauge where people will be in their political opinions in October and November, and besides, most of the surveys of registered voters have actually shown the race within the margin of error, which is actually “too close to call.”

Presidential Election 2024: Biden, Trump Rematch Too Close to Call

I also predicted several months ago that the picture would look much different by summer, and we are almost there. Previous surveys have also shown that anywhere from 5 to 20 percent of previous Trump voters would walk away from supporting Trump if he was convicted of a felony.

As everyone knows by now, a New York jury convicted Trump last week of falsifying records to cover up a sex scandal in what became known sensationally as the Stormy Daniels Hush Money Trial.

Trump Found Guilty on All 34 Counts in New York Hush Money Trial

I’ve been waiting for the first poll results to come out since the verdict to see if it would show evidence of a move on the part of some voters away from Trump. The New York Times finally provided a followup and are now showing at least some evidence that the verdict is making a difference in the minds of some voters.

Small Shift Toward Biden After Trump Verdict

“It’s one of the big questions in the wake of the conviction of Donald J. Trump,” says Nate Cohn. “Did the verdict change anyone’s mind?”

To find out, the Times-Siena College survey team called back people who had taken a survey in the last few months to see if they could find evidence on whether anyone’s preferences are changing.

“The early answer seems to be an equivocal ‘yes,’” Cohn says.

The Times reach out to about 1,900 people who favored Trump when originally interviewed in April and May, showing they favored Trump by three points. Those respondents this time only backed Trump by one point, indicating a two point drop already.

“A two-point shift toward President Biden may not seem like much, but in such a close election it could easily be decisive,” Cohn says. “In fact, he is within two points in national polls and in states and districts worth 270 electoral votes, so a two-point shift in his favor would more or less erase Mr. Trump’s overall lead in the polls.”

The swing voters identified were young, nonwhite, less engaged and low-turnout voters.

The results show that 20 percent of Trump’s previous supporters who are Black now say they back Biden. In comparison, only 2 percent of non-Black previous Trump supporters made the flip.

“With that in mind, it’s possible Mr. Biden gained a bit more than the two-point improvement among those we successfully recontacted,” Cohn says. “That’s because older, white and highly engaged voters were relatively likely to retake the survey, and those groups were much less likely to swing in the aftermath of the verdict.”

But the bottom line is, if you’ve wondered whether anything can change people’s minds in a rematch in a polarized country, according to Cohn, “I think this study offers a pretty clear answer.”

It’s still too early to say for sure, but the worm appears to be turning, and not in Trump’s favor.

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