The Big Picture –
By Glynn Wilson –

GETTYSBURG, Pa. – The race is on.

Only 90 days to go.

And Tim Walz for Veep? Wow!

“We can sleep when we’re dead” indeed.

More like a country singer than a rock star, a cross between Harry Truman, Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter, while the vice presidential choice rarely makes the decisive difference in a presidential campaign, Walz could be the rare exception.

He certainly doesn’t seem “weird,” like Trump, Vance and the far right MAGA faithful. He’s no San Francisco liberal, or a Deep State elitist from the Ivy League, New York or Washington either. Although the Republicans will try to paint this ticket that way to try to keep their majority with gun-toting white men who fly the Confederate flag and seem ready at any moment to volunteer to fight the Civil War one more time, like they did in attacking the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Never forget.

“I see you down there. I see you old, white guys,” Walz said after being introduced by Vice President and Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris.

“Some of us are old enough to remember when it was Republicans who were talking about freedom,” he said. “It turns out now what they meant was that the government should be free to invade your doctor’s office. In Minnesota, we respect our neighbors and their personal choices that they make. Even if we wouldn’t make the same choice for ourselves, there’s a golden rule: ‘Mind your own damn business’.”

If that doesn’t resonate with mainstream, normal American voters, nothing will.

It’s being reported that the choice came down to two names, Walz and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who is a rising star in his own right. Shapiro’s own ambition came across in the interview process at the Naval Observatory in Washington, according to reporting from the New York Times, the Vice Presidential residence where the Harris campaign staff gathered to vet the candidates. He seemed more concerned about what role he would play in the administration than going all out to help the ticket beat Trump.

Walz, on the other hand, came off as open minded and willing to do whatever it takes to beat Trump and Vance, sporting a camouflage cap in the video when he received the call from Harris to ask him to join her campaign. He was a member of the National Guard, after all, and did not avoid the draft due to bone spurs.

See video on YouTube.

In Philadelphia, he talked about what it’s like growing up in a sparsely populated rural community, where he worked on a Nebraska farm, and how neighbors used to treat each other with altruism, until Trump and social media came along and turned people mean and selfish.

He spent some time in Congress, so he’s no stranger on Capitol Hill, where he won the annual sharp shooter contest. Talk about putting a target on Republicans. As a member of Congress, who voted to save the Affordable Care Act along with Arizona Senator John McCain, and as head of the National Governor’s Association, Walz is able to talk effectively about reaching across the partisan isle and the value of compromise, while “not compromising my values.”

This is something Americans need to relearn, once the era of Trump and the selfish gene comes crashing to some logical conclusion. Altruism is what America needs. Not more pro-wrestling fake news competition.

How Wrestle­ Mania Trumped Intelligence in U.S. Politics

Walz talked about being a high school Social Studies teacher and a football coach, a tough guy coaching the linebackers on defense while teaching history, something that is disappearing in schools and on social media. He was seen as a sympathetic mentor to students, including gay students. One of his former football players was interviewed on CNN after the speech, talking about how Walz helped him as a father figure.

The Democratic Party has suffered from an elitist problem for years, which began long before Trump emerged from the muck of Republicans politics. To appeal to average Americans, especially those without a college education, they like to use lines against them like calling them “Limousine Liberals” and “latte-drinking liberals.” Walz delivered a roadmap for how to talk to normal, working people and effectively counter this image.

How Americans Are Responding

It’s too soon to know how Americans will respond to the events of Tuesday night, and the choice of Walz, but a new poll taken before Harris announced her choice showed marked improvement just in the past couple of weeks.

Vice President Harris has upended the presidential race and has now built a 51 percent to 48 percent lead over former President Trump in a head-to-head matchup, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll. That’s the first time a Democrat has polled 50 percent or better since Bernie Sanders hit the half way mark in the Democratic Primary in 2016.

Poll: Harris jumps to a small national lead over Trump

That result is 4 points better than just after Harris got into the race two weeks ago when President Biden bowed out. Harris maintains a 3-point lead (48%-45%) when third-party choices are offered, too.

Fueling her rise are Black voters, white women with college degrees and women who identify as political independents, NPR says. She is doing 20 to 30 points better with them than when she first got in, leading to improvement in the suburbs and with white voters overall.

On the issues, the negative views of the economy are not sticking to Harris the way they did to President Joe Biden. Trump is still more trusted on the economy, an anomaly compared to the facts and the record, but only by 3 points over Harris (51%-48%), compared to 9 points over Biden (54%-45%) in June.

Harris is also seeing improvement on how she would handle immigration, though Trump is still more liked on that topic by 6 points (52%-46%).

Abortion Rights on the Ballot

Harris’ best issue is handling abortion rights, since the right-wing Trump court overturned 50 years of American law to outlaw it. She has a 15-point advantage there, which will be a big, key issue driving voter turnout on Nov. 5.

While Harris performs better than Biden with women, independents and Black voters, surprisingly she also improved her standing in the suburbs and with white voters. Harris has gone from 40 percent with white voters overall to 46 percent in this survey, which is closer to where Biden was.

“That’s very high for a Democrat,” NPR analysts say. “In fact, no Democrat has scored that high with white voters in a presidential election since Jimmy Carter in 1976.”

There is a 22-point gender gap, however, which is wider than the margin between Trump and Biden in July. Harris now leads by 13 points with women (55%-42%), but is losing men by 9 points (54%-45%). Considering the margin of error, those are close to the results of the 2020 presidential election.

Black Voters Matter

Harris’ biggest boost is coming with Black voters, which will be critical in the key battleground states. She has gone from a 23-point lead with Black voters over Trump a couple of weeks ago, when many voters moved into the undecided camp, to a 54-point lead. This is huge. Some Black voters, who appeared to be considering Trump, have moved away from him, NPR says. Trump has dropped 10 points since Biden announced he would step aside and endorsed his Vice President.

Independent Voters

Harris is also now winning independents, something Biden was not doing. Harris is up 9 points with independents (53%-44%). In early July, Trump was beating Biden by 4 points with critical independent voters.

Biden got 41 percent in 2020. Barack Obama in 2008 won 43 percent of these voters.

That improvement is mostly because of college-educated white women.

“White voters without degrees, a core Trump base group, are heavily in Trump’s favor and their margin is unchanged,” NPR says.

Two-thirds of college-educated white women, though, are now in Harris’ camp, which would be far higher than the percentage that sided with Biden in 2020.

Baby Boomers

She’s also winning with older voters. Harris is leading Trump by 11 points with baby boomers (55%-44%), for example.

Latinos have also moved in Harris’ favor. Fifty-eight percent say they would vote for her now, compared to 51 percent last month. That’s still below the 65 percent Biden won in 2020, but again, this came before Walz.

Younger Voters

Harris is not where she needs to be with voters under 45 at this point, however, so there is some work to do there. Biden won them in 2020 by 14 points. Harris and Trump right now are tied with the group. Where Harris does far better than Biden with the group, though, is retaining them when third parties are introduced in the sample.

Biden was seeing double-digit drop-offs with Gen Z/millennials, for example. Harris, on the other hand, maintains and slightly expands her margin when respondents have a choice of candidates other than the two major-party picks.

Third Parties

With Harris in the race, people appear to be moving away from third parties. All of the third-party candidates are seeing their worst scores since Marist started asking about them in April. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent, is down to just 5 percent. Professor Cornel West, also running as an independent, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver are all polling at or below 1 percent.

Entusiasm Boost

Harris is benefiting from a boost in enthusiasm with core Democratic voter groups as well, NPR says, critical also to driving voter turnout. Black, Latino and younger voters are saying they’re more fired up to vote now that Harris is in the race. Black voters, Latinos and Gen Z/millennial voters have all jumped double-digits in saying they’re definitely voting.

In July, just 71 percent of Black voters, 68 percent of Latinos and 65 percent of Gen Z/millennials said they were definitely voting, among the lowest of any groups. That’s now up to 81 percent with Black voters, 84 percent with Latinos and 80 percent with Gen Z/millennials.

Being honest and trustworthy is the most important quality for a president, voters tell pollsters. If that’s the case, Trump has no chance. While trustworthiness was the most important quality for Democrats and independent voters, a plurality of Republicans said a “strong leader” was most important to them, explaining to some extent why Republicans seem willing to support an authoritarian personality who threatens a dictatorship if voters return him to the White House.

Forty-seven percent of registered voters now say they want to see Democrats in control of Congress, while 45 percent still said Republicans, a 2-point advantage unchanged since June.

But guess what? Even Biden’s public approval rating has gone up since he dropped out, to a high of 46 percent.

So let the 90 day campaign begin. Look out Trump and Vance. Harris and Walz is a strong ticket, and could win the day in the end – with a lot of money and a little luck.

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