Trump ick for BP JD Vance: NAJ screen shot

Staff Report –

It’s important to make a good first impression, they say, whether you’re on a first date, interviewing for a job – or running to be vice president of the United States. And the two men who recently joined the Republican and Democratic presidential tickets have made very different first impressions.

JD Vance is more unpopular than Sarah Palin, and people like Tim Walz, according to the latest survey from 538 for ABC News.

According to 538’s new polling average of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s favorable and unfavorable ratings, “the Democratic candidate for vice president has an unusual quality for a modern politician,” analysts say. “He’s well liked.”

Thirty eight percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of Walz, and only 33 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

“Democrats’ initial branding of Walz — as a paternal former teacher, coach and National Guardsman — seems to have caught on,” analysts say.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Democratic Party nominee for Vice President: NAJ screen shot

But Americans were cool toward Vance from the start. Three days after he was announced as former President Donald Trump’s running mate, his net favorability rating was -3 percentage points (29 percent unfavorable, 26 percent favorable).

Since then, he has faced a rash of bad headlines about his past comments calling Harris a “childless cat lady,” his past support for a national abortion ban and even a baseless internet rumor about having sex with a couch, as well as his involvement in Project 2025.

The poor rollout pushed his net favorability rating down even further, to -9 points.

“That is a historically bad net favorability rating for a vice-presidential candidate,” analysts say.

Most vice-presidential candidates this century had numbers that looked like Walz’s: Slightly more Americans liked them than disliked them. Public opinion on them was divided, reflecting partisanship.

It may surprise some folks that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin — who is usually remembered as the worst VP pick in modern times — had “only” a -2-point net favorability rating by the end of the 2008 campaign. But people forget that she actually started off as an energizing and popular pick. On Sept. 10, 2008, one week after her well-received acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention, her net favorability rating was +21 points (47 percent favorable, 25 percent unfavorable).

But from that moment on, the more Americans learned about Palin, the more they disliked her. Her poor answers to interview questions created a perception that she was unprepared for the presidency, and an ethics scandal back home in Alaska tarnished her image as a reformer.

By Election Day, her unfavorable rating had shot up 20 points (to 45 percent), while her favorable rating was down 3 points (to 44 percent).

Vance has a long way to go before he loses 23 points’ worth of net favorability, so I don’t think we can say that his vice-presidential campaign has gone as badly as Palin’s. But so far, at least, it has followed a similar downward trajectory, making Palin’s candidacy the best recent historical comparison to Vance’s.

Gallup: Democrats Give Harris Nearly Unanimous Positive Ratings

Vice President Kamala Harris: NAJ screen shot

Americans’ views of Vice President Kamala Harris have improved markedly in a Gallup poll conducted mostly before the Democratic National Convention began. Harris’ favorable and job approval ratings have been largely buoyed by Democrats’ nearly unanimous positive assessments, but independents’ ratings are also higher.

Americans’ favorable rating of Harris has increased 13 percentage points since June, to 47 percent, with 93 percent of Democrats, 41 percent of independents and even 5 percent of Republicans holding positive opinions of Harris.

The vice president’s job approval rating is also now 47 percent, up seven points from the previous reading in December 2023.

The latest findings are from an Aug. 1-20 poll conducted after the 2024 presidential election campaign was upended by Biden’s July 21 announcement that he was ending his bid for a second term. Biden’s endorsement of Harris to take his place and the quick consolidation of Democratic support behind her candidacy rapidly changed the dynamics of the race.

Biden’s Job Approval Rating Up Seven Points

Biden has seen a seven-point jump in his job approval rating to 43 percent since July, when it was at the lowest point of his presidency. While this marks a significant improvement for Biden, his rating remains below the 48 percent threshold that is the lowest on record at the time of the election for an incumbent who has won a second term.

Democrats’ job approval rating of Biden is up eight points to 89 percent in the wake of his withdrawal from the race, a move that many in his party were pushing for after his weak debate performance against Trump in June. Independents’ approval of Biden is up six points to 37 percent, while Republicans’ rating is essentially unchanged at 3 percent.

At the same time, Trump’s favorable rating has dipped five points to 41 percent.

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