The Democrats will retake control of the House in January –

Election Analysis –
By Glynn Wilson –

There’s almost no way the Democrats can lose the House in 2024.

At a race baiting rally in Madison Square Garden on Sunday, Trump hinted at “a little secret” he had with House Speaker Mike Johnson, who was in attendance. Trump claimed this could have a “big impact” on helping the Republicans remain in control of the House.

“We can take the Senate pretty easily,” Trump said, “and I think with our little secret, we’re going to take the House, right?” he said, with a wink and a nod at Johnson. “Our little secret is having a big impact. He and I have a secret. We’ll tell you what it is when the race is over.”

The comment spurred theories that Trump and Johnson were planning to try to overturn the results of the 2024 election if Trump again loses the presidential race.

“It’s a get-out-the-vote thing,” Johnson later claimed. “It’s one of our tactics on get-out-the-vote.”

Dramatically rubbing his hands together as if he was coming up with an evil plan, he made fun of the media and public response.

But the October surprise, and the secret the voters will have for them on Nov. 5 is, that they will lose the House, and probably badly.

While the Republicans now hold 221 seats and the Democrats hold 214, counting vacancies, in the 435 seat chamber, the Electoral College map simply favors Democrats in this election cycle.

How Vice President Kamala Harris performs on election night up against Trump will make a difference in places, but all indicators point to a win for Harris in the national popular vote, which will help down-ballot races for the House in all kinds of places even the national pundits are not focused on.

That incudes the First Congressional District in Eastern Arkansas along the Mississippi River from the mountains in the north to the Mississippi Delta, where Democrat Rodney Govens may very well upset MAGA Republican Rick Crawford.

A Political Upset is Brewing from the Grass Roots Up in Rural Arkansas

With new electoral maps in place in many states due to redistricting, Democrats need to gain five seats to win control of the chamber, and there are opportunities all over the map.

The Republicans could pick up House seats in North Carolina due to gaining one seat due to population increases in the state, and the party appears to have been helped by redistricting court fights, which could land them two more seats there.

But voting itself is in question in many counties in Western North Carolina, hit hard by Hurricane Helene, which could favor the Democrats and help Harris take the state. So even if Trump were to pull off an upset and take Michigan’s 15 electoral votes, North Carolina’s 16 would more than make up for it.

Democrats will also pick up seats in Alabama and Louisiana due to court decisions about redistricting in those states.

The experts say 21 Republican seats are competitive, with 15 close and now in the toss-up category or favoring Democrats. Eight vulnerable Republicans are running in districts in the deep blue states of New York and California. If Harris wins big, and Trump flounders, the Democrats will pick up seats in those big states for sure.

The California Republicans in trouble are John Duarte, David Valadao, Mike Garcia, Ken Calvert and Michelle Steel. In New York, Brandon Williams could be in trouble as well as Anthony D’Esposito and Marc Molinaro. The Cook Political Report has seven of those races in the toss-up category, while the Democrat state senator John Mannion is favored to win there.

Mike Lawler of New York is also vulnerable, but pollsters have him favored by a small margin in that race.

Biden won in all but one of these districts, Calvert’s in California, where Trump won by a single point in 2020.

That gives Democrats hope that a clear Harris victory and rejection of Trump in New York and California could help with the down-ballot shifts they need to take back the House.

Two Iowa Republicans are intensely fighting to keep their jobs as well, Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn. Miller-Meeks won the seat in 2020 with one of the slimmest margins in modern history — six votes. Nunn survived in 2022 by less than a percentage point. Iowa has just four congressional seats and less expensive media markets, so the state is being hammered by ads in both races.

Also, in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, Republican Don Bacon is a moderate who’s well-liked on Capitol Hill. (His trademark phrase is, “Who doesn’t like Bacon?”) But his Omaha district voted for Biden by six points in 2020. Nebraska separates its electoral votes by congressional district and Bacon’s is a single electoral vote that Democrats are determined to keep. It’s so important the entire presidential election could be decided there, but probably won’t be. Harris has a wide lead in “blue dot” Omaha now, which is a problem for Bacon, and could be a gain for the Democrats.

There are also four more Republicans in toss-up races. Two are in Arizona, one in Pennsylvania and one in Oregon. Another five Republicans are in that “lean Republican” category that Democrats see as potentially winnable.

Democrats have fewer races in the toss-up category. Eleven, compared to 15 for Republicans, including Mary Peltola in Alaska, Yadira Caraveo in Colorado, Jared Golden in Maine (running against a former NASCAR driver), Don Davis in North Carolina, Gabe Vasquez in New Mexico, Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington state.

There are two toss-up open seats in Michigan as well, and one in Virginia.

These Democratic front-liners are experiencing a host of different dynamics. Peltola in Alaska and Golden in Maine both may benefit from ranked-choice voting, for example.

But in Virginia, where Abigail Spanberger has left her seat open to run for governor, Democrat Eugene Vindman is seeing his numbers go the wrong way. He’s the twin brother of Trump whistleblower Alexander Vindman, and had a small role in the first Trump impeachment. He initially ran on those credentials, but the district has been unimpressed and now he rarely mentions it.

Democrats are highly favored to win back control. But starting down by five seats, and considering the map changes, it’s no sure thing, especially in this mixed up political environment when good information seems hard to come by for some people.

“Democrats in general feel better about their chances than Republicans,” according to coverage by PBS.

We will not know until the votes are counted, and that could take awhile. Don’t expect final results on election night, especially not from California, where slow vote counting will be an issue.

A Secret for Trump

As for Trump’s “little secret,” he might as well begin planning his retirement from politics, and his plan to flee the country to avoid prison time.

Even though a federal judge on Monday granted Trump’s lawyers’ request to push back the deadline for filing their view of whether the former president is immune from prosecution in the 2020 election subversion case until two weeks after the presidential election, if he’s defeated again in 2024 he will still face a criminal trial in the D.C. election interference case.

Trump’s attorneys had asked to have until Nov. 21, instead of Nov. 7, to file an up-to-180-page brief arguing why Trump’s efforts to overturn President Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory should be immune from criminal prosecution, citing disruptions caused by Hurricane Milton to the work of several of Trump’s Florida-based attorneys. U.S. District Judge Tanya S. Chutkan granted the request hours later, removing the possibility of the filing landing almost immediately after next Tuesday’s election, when officials might still be counting votes.

At Trump’s request, judge delays immunity filing in Jan. 6 prosecution

Of course if he were to win the election, he would just demand that the case be dropped by his new lackey attorney general in charge of the Department of Justice, whoever that might turn out to be. But he’s no longer in charge of the federal government. President Joe Biden is, so there won’t be much the House can do but certify the results on Jan. 6, 2024. The country will not stand by for another attack on the Capitol.

Surely the American people are not stupid enough to put this guy back in charge of the government again anyway. He did a lousy job the first time, and it would be the end of American democracy to allow him back in the White House and the Oval Office again.

If I were a betting man, I’d bet on Harris-Walz. The Taylor Swift voters alone could very well be the end of Trump.

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