The Big Picture – 
By Glynn Wilson – 

Back in late January, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists reset the Doomsday Click for human survival on planet Earth at 100 seconds until midnight, mainly due to the mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic by the Trump administration in the United States.

At that time, they were projecting two million deaths worldwide from COVID-19. As of the latest count on Earth Day, April 22, there have been more than 145 million cases reported around the world, with more than 3 million deaths, while 123 million people recovered after becoming infected. In the U.S., more than 32 million cases were reported. More than 25 million people recovered, including the former president, but the death toll stands at 583,483 and counting as of this writing.

“The mishandling of this grave global health crisis is a ‘wake-up call’ that governments, institutions, and a misled public remain unprepared to handle the even greater threats posed by nuclear war and climate change,” the scientists said in their annual statement. “Given this and the lack of progress in 2020 in dealing with nuclear and climate perils, the Doomsday Clock remains as close to midnight as it has ever been – just 100 seconds to midnight.”

In December 2020, the organization marked its 75th anniversary. It was founded in 1945 by Albert Einstein and University of Chicago scientists who helped develop the first atomic weapons in the Manhattan Project. The Doomsday Clock was launched two years later, using the imagery of apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary idiom of nuclear explosion (countdown to zero) to convey threats to humanity and the planet. Over time, the Clock has become a universally recognized indicator of the world’s vulnerability to catastrophe from nuclear weapons, climate change and disruptive technologies in other domains.

“The hands of the Doomsday Clock remain at 100 seconds to midnight, as close to midnight as ever,” Dr. Rachel Bronson, president and CEO, said at the time. “The lethal and fear-inspiring COVID-19 pandemic serves as a historic ‘wake-up call,’ a vivid illustration that national governments and international organizations are unprepared to manage the truly civilization-ending threats of nuclear weapons and climate change.”

Former California Governor Jerry Brown, executive chair of the group, urged at the time that Russia and the world’s nuclear powers should stop shouting at each other and get busy cooperating to save the planet, or at least keep it livable for human beings.

“It’s time to eliminate nuclear weapons, not build more of them,” Brown said. “Likewise, with climate change: the U.S., China and other big countries must get serious about cutting lethal carbon emissions – now! It’s 100 seconds to midnight. Wake up!”

The group urged the U.S. and Russian presidents to extend the new START treaty for as long as possible, keeping the two largest nuclear arsenals at current levels.

Once the new president, Joe Biden, was sworn in January 20 and announced the U.S. would rejoin the Paris climate agreement and the World Health Organization, the group urged the new administration to accelerate its commitment to decarbonization and put policies in place that make the attainment of the commitment feasible and work through the WHO and other international institutions to reduce biological risks of all kinds.

There are continued worries about North Korea and Iran, but at least the new administration is filling leadership positions for science-based agencies on the basis of scientific expertise and credentials and prohibiting interference with the production or dissemination of executive branch scientific reports, as was done by the Trump administration. The Biden administration appears committed to using the best possible science to inform policy considerations. The group also urges allowing government scientists to engage with the public about their work.

“Governments, major communications technology firms, academic experts, and responsible media organizations can cooperate to find practical and ethical ways to combat internet-enabled misinformation and disinformation,” the group says.

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President Biden Convenes World Summit

On the morning of Earth Day, April 22, President Joe Biden convened a panel of experts to begin a global conversation on what to do about climate change, and declared that America “has resolved to take action.” He called on world leaders to significantly accelerate their own plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, or risk a disastrous collective failure in stopping climate change from being a catastrophe for the people of the world.

Biden formally pledged that the United States would cut its emissions at least in half from 2005 levels by 2030.

“Barely three months into Mr. Biden’s presidency, the contrast with his science-denying predecessor, Donald J. Trump, could not have been more striking,” The New York Times reported on Thursday.

“The signs are unmistakable, the science is undeniable and the cost of inaction keeps mounting,” Biden said in his statement.

While the summit is international in scope, Biden’s speech was also aimed at a domestic audience, focusing not just on America’s obligation to help cut its global emissions but on the jobs he believes are available in greening the U.S. economy.

“The countries that take decisive actions now” to tackle climate change, “will be the ones that reap the clean energy benefits of the boom that’s coming,” he said.

Joining Biden on Thursday, President Xi Jinping of China restated promises his nation already has made to “strive to peak” emissions by the end of this decade and reach carbon neutrality by 2060. Xi said coal would be on its way out after 2025, which is realistically the only way to reach the 2030 carbon neutrality goal. Coal use may have already peaked in China, according to experts.

Xi also noted that China’s goals call for “extraordinary efforts” and maintained it is cutting emissions “in a much shorter time span than what might take many developed countries.”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, where a new double mutation of the coronavirus is exploding and causing new lockdowns to be announced, made no new commitment on climate change. But he reiterated his nation’s promise of installing 450 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030. He also said that his country’s per capita emissions are far smaller than other major emitters.

“We in India are doing our part,” Mr. Modi said. “Despite our development challenges we have taken many bold steps.”

The summit is the first of its kind to be convened by a United States president, and Biden is joined by other world leaders like Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada.

Trudeau pledged that Canada would reduce its greenhouse emissions levels 40 percent to 45 percent from 2005 levels by 2030, compared with its previous target of a 30 percent emissions reduction in the same time frame. Japan also announced that it would cut emissions 46 percent below 2013 levels by the end of the decade, a significant show of solidarity with the U.S.

Biden’s target of 50 percent to 52 percent by the end of the decade calls for a steep and rapid decline of fossil fuel use in virtually every sector of the American economy and marks the start of what is sure to be a bitter partisan fight over achieving it, since the Republicans in Congress still seem to be hellbent on using the environment as a wedge issue to keep their base riled up to vote against Democrats at any cost.

The two-day summit comes at a time when scientists are warning that governments must take decisive action to prevent global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees above preindustrial levels. The consequences of exceeding that threshold includes mass species extinctions, water shortages and extreme weather events that will be most devastating to the poorest countries least responsible for causing global warming.

Officially, nations that are party to the Paris agreement are obligated to announce their new targets for emissions cuts in time for a United Nations conference in Scotland in November.

House Democratic Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer of Greenbelt, Maryland, released a statement in support of the Biden administration’s actions to work on keeping planet Earth livable for human beings for the foreseeable future.

“On Earth Day, together we take a step back and see ourselves not as members of communities or nations but as residents of one fragile planet,” Hoyer said. “The responsibility of caring for the Earth and protecting our environment falls to each and every one of us who dwells upon it, just as it is essential that we teach our children and grandchildren to cherish this planet and its diverse ecosystems and to protect them for future generations.

“The sad truth that we must all face is that humanity is currently failing to preserve the health of our planet,” he said. “Thankfully, we now have leaders in the White House who recognize this challenge and are prepared to confront it.

“The Biden-Harris Administration’s announcement this morning that the United States will aim to cut its greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030 is exactly the kind of bold leadership we need to demonstrate if America is to lead the world out of the climate crisis. Not only will this goal and the President’s American Jobs Plan make our planet greener and healthier, in the process they will help us grow our economy and create millions of good jobs that won’t be outsourced. Pursuing this path makes sense in every way: creating high-paying jobs in clean-energy technology manufacturing will enable more of our people to Make It In America while protecting the health of our planet for generations to come.

“Passing the American Jobs Plan would unlock the full potential of our economic recovery and move us more quickly and successfully out of the current economic crisis caused by COVID-19. I applaud the president and his team for setting goals that are both ambitious and achievable, goals that tackle the climate crisis head-on and restore America’s place as a leader in the global effort to address the climate crisis.

“I’m proud of Democrats’ work in the House to reduce carbon pollution, ​invest in clean energy, and conserve our precious lands, waters, and wildlife,” he concluded. “Every single House committee under our Majority is focused on the challenge of climate change and opportunities to transform this crisis into an opening for American leadership and economic success. Last Congress, we passed the Climate Action Now Act to fight back against the Trump Administration’s dangerous ignorance of science and its withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement. With President Biden’s decision to return the United States to that agreement, House Democrats look forward to working closely with the new Administration to ensure that Congress is doing its part to pass policies that care for our planet, strengthen our economic competitiveness through clean energy deployment, and preserve our treasured landscapes and threatened ecosystems for future generations.”

Future Prognosis

When contacted for an update and new comments, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists declined to make any new statement about any progress by the new administration or any changes to the time frame on the clock.

The fact that issues related to climate change are now on the front burner of the new administration is an encouraging development, as well as cooperation by the leadership in other nations.

But the continued political intransigence by Republicans in Congress, including and especially in the Senate, who continue to mislead a large segment of the American public with false information simply for their perceived political survival, will inevitably hold up progress and keep the country and the world on an unstable course for the foreseeable future.

There has yet to be a national or a Congressional debate on Biden’s proposal for the creation of a Civilian Climate Corps under his tax reform and infrastructure plan.

Related: The American Jobs Plan and Biden’s Made In America Tax Plan Explained

The nation is still being torn apart and remains as divided as ever on what to do about police and gun violence, as well as the continuing immigration crisis on the Southern border.

In Southern states like Texas and Tennessee, Republican legislators have gone off the Trump and NRA cliff by passing bills allowing anyone to carry a concealed weapon, without any background check, permit or training program. This will inevitably lead to more gun violence in the foreseeable future, and violence in the streets and mass shootings and cop killings will remain a divisive issue, distracting us from any chance we have to come together as a common species to focus on human survival on the planet in the face of looming existential threats.

So while the prognosis may be improving somewhat with Trump gone from the White House, the outcome of this battle for human survival on planet Earth is still very much in doubt. The clock is ticking, and time is running out.