Increasing the Likelihood that Democrats Will Hold the Senate in November –

By Glynn Wilson –
Political Analyst –

With just over three weeks to go until Election Day 2022, Nov. 8, control of the United States Senate still hangs in the balance. But new developments are giving pollsters more confidence that the Democrats may very well hang onto power at least in the upper chamber of Congress.

Nowhere are the stakes higher than in Georgia, the one key battleground Southern state that came through in a big way for democracy in 2020.

In the first week of October, the Walker campaign was rocked by scandal when a woman who had a child with the former star fullback provided proof that she also had an abortion and that he paid for it, albeit reluctantly and after the fact.

The reaction on social media was that this would not matter, since Republican voters these days don’t seem to be influenced by scandal, and would seemingly vote for a zombie child molester as long as the ballot carries an R by the candidate’s name.

But I predicted that this would amount to a knock out punch for Walker, not just because of the abortion scandal, but because of how his own son — who has been parading as a conservative, Christian activist on Twitter — came out against his own father.

“I know my mom and I would really appreciate if my father Herschel Walker stopped lying and making a mockery of us. You’re not a ‘family man’ when you left us to bang a bunch of women, threatened to kill us, and had us move over 6 times in 6 months running from your violence,” he said on Twitter.

I know my mom and I would really appreciate if my father Herschel Walker stopped lying and making a mockery of us.

You’re not a “family man” when you left us to bang a bunch of women, threatened to kill us, and had us move over 6 times in 6 months running from your violence.

— Christian Walker (@ChristianWalk1r) October 4, 2022

This clearly had an affect on voters, and moved the polls in the direction of the Democrat in the race, Senator Raphael Warnock, who won that critical seat in 2020. Warnock is now leading in every poll by an average of 3.3 percent, outside the margin of error, which you can see for yourself on the Real Clear Politics website.

Even Nate Cohn, the “chief political analyst” for The New York Times, said in “The Tilt” newsletter Friday morning that the scandal has taken such a toll that not only will Warnock likely hold onto his seat, but the scandal could tip the entire Senate in favor of the Democrats.

“In today’s highly polarized political climate, it takes a lot for a scandal to make a big difference in a high-stakes election,” Cohn says. “But if the latest polls are any indication, the recent allegations against Herschel Walker … might be big enough not only to decide his race but also control of the Senate.”

The latest surveys show Walker slipping by an average of about 2.5 percentage points since an ex-girlfriend said he paid her for an abortion she had in 2009. Walker made opposition to abortion a cornerstone of his campaign and has denied the woman’s account, but she provided proof in the form of a receipt and a get well card signed by Walker.

Other Battlegrounds

Georgia’s race was arguably the closest Senate race in the country until last week, and unlike some other places where data is harder to come by, the polls have a relatively good track record in Georgia.

The troubles of Walker compound the odds against Republicans retaking control in the Senate.

“Weak nominees have already hurt their chances in New Hampshire; forced the party to spend millions in what ought to have been the safely Republican state of Ohio; and endangered the party’s chances in Arizona and even Pennsylvania, where Dr. Mehmet Oz’s unpopularity may just be enough to keep the Republicans from winning an eminently winnable race,” Cohn says.

“By most accounts, Republicans probably need to win just two of three key tossup states,” he says, “Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada. It’s a realistic path, but it starts looking a lot more challenging if Mr. Walker fumbles in Georgia.”

There is also good news this week in Pennsylvania, where last week the self-described “secular Muslim” and Nazi sympathizer Republican Mehmet Oz appeared to be gaining on “Everyman” John Fetterman. I could be that the tweet showing Oz posing with with Adolph Hitler’s actual car complete with Nazi swastika at a Matt Gaetz fundraiser got out far and wide on social media and influenced some registered voters to turn against him.

I don't know who needs to hear this, but if you're asking donors for money in front of Hitler’s literal car, then you shouldn't be running for U.S. Senate https://t.co/68X6ulCPQa

— John Fetterman (@JohnFetterman) October 7, 2022

Fetterman now leads in every poll, by an average of 3.4 percent, outside the margin of error, and Real Clear Politics has removed the caveat showing a 5 percent over-estimation in participation in polls by Democrats.

Related: Critical Pennsylvania Senate Race Tightens as Election Day Nears

In other key battleground states, Mark Kelly appears to be running away with the race in Arizona, leading Republican Blake Masters by an average of 4.5 points, well outside the margin of error.

Democrat Maggie Hassan is also leading handily over Republican Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, by an average of 5.8 percent.

Democrat Michael Bennet has opened up a commanding lead over Republican Joe O’Dea in Colorado by an average of 7.7 percent.

Democrat Patty Murray is also leading big in Washington State over Republican Tiffany Smiley.

In Ohio, however, Republican J.D. Vance is holding his own against Democrat Tim Ryan, and that race is still a dead heat.

It’s also too close to call in Wisconsin, where African American candidate Mandela Barnes is having a hard time against one of the craziest pro-Trump Senators of them all, Ron Johnson.

In North Carolina, Republican Ted Budd is also still holding a slight lead over Democrat Cheri Beasley, but the race is too close to call.

Unfortunately, it appears Republican Marco Rubio will hold onto his seat in Florida, where he faces Val Demings.

And in one of the key battlegrounds where Democrats thought they had a good chance, Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt is still ahead of Catherine Cortez Masto, but that contest is also too close to call.

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